The BBC reports on the assassination attempt:
An apparent bid to assassinate Somalia's interim president has killed at least five people outside parliament in the town of Baidoa.
A suspected car bomb went off soon after a convoy left carrying President Abdullahi Yusuf, but the leader is said to have escaped unharmed.
A second bomb exploded near the first, setting at least five cars ablaze.
Multiple attacks timed to occur near simultaneously is an al-Qaeda signature:
Mr Yusuf has strained relations with an Islamist group which controls much of southern Somalia.
The Union of Islamic Courts deny US accusations that they are linked to al-Qaeda.
Four people were killed. The report says the dead were civilians and bodyguards.
So what would have prompted the attack? The timing suggests the "peace" talks:
Local journalist Mohamed Adawe said the blast came 10 minutes after the president had delivered a speech.
The parliament was meeting to approve [Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Ghedi's] new government. MPs have been debating whether the government should share power with the UIC. They have held peace talks but have not yet reached an agreement.
President Yusuf wants foreign peacekeepers sent to Somalia -- a suggestion strongly rejected by the Islamists, who say they can take care of security in a country which has not had an effective national government for 15 years.
Just how adamant are the Islamists that peacekeepers not be deployed? Enough to fight and kill to keep it from happening?
The government complains the Islamists are expanding their hold on Somali territory and enforcement of strict Sharia law in a direct challenge to its legitimacy. The Islamists in turn accuse the government of inviting in Ethiopian troops to back it.
In addition, they are at loggerheads over the proposed deployment of regional peacekeepers to shore up the government's limited authority, a plan vehemently opposed by the Islamists who have vowed to fight any foreign force.
[ICU delegate Ibrahim Hussein Addow] reiterated those positions on Saturday.
"The foreign interference and the presence of foreign forces on Somali soil, some of which are already there, is a recipe for another civil war and not the pursuit of reconciliation and reconstruction," he said.
A key question is whether this attack is likely to scuttle the peace talks that have been underway:
Somalia's interim government and its rival Islamist administration said on Monday [September 4] they had agreed in principle to create joint military forces, and to meet again for more talks on power-sharing in the anarchic country.
Details of how armed forces might be combined will be hammered out only if a broader political solution is reached.
Were they behind the attack? It boils down to who else would gain from killing the president and sending the Transitional Federal Government into turmoil.
The suspects:
- The Islamists in Mogadishu: If the government dissolves, they can more easily pursue their agenda. The government does not represent a physical obstacle -- by all accounts, the government would be unable to beat the Islamists in a fight. But the government does have some legitimacy internationally. That means while the government remains minimally viable, other governments and international bodies will refuse to talk to the Islamists, and legitimacy is something they crave. On a practical level, the legitimate government can also call for international help against the Islamists. More than a few countries are not eager to see a Taliban-like regime take over in Somalia. The Baidoa government is a real political threat.
- Islamists within the government: There may be those within the government who believe that the Islamists hold the key to peace and stability in Somalia. They may find themselves more in favour of the Islam-based agenda of the ICU. If these people see the government as an obstacle, they might have been behind the attack, or they might have helped the Islamists stage the attack, with the promise that they would take over the decapitated government,
- al-Qaeda: Either on their own (less likely) or in coordination with the Islamists (more likely), foreign elements of al-Qaeda are behind the attack, hoping to throw Somalia into turmoil, not unlike Afganistan after the Soviet retreat, and so create a new failed state in which to establish a permanent presence.
- Warlords: Not aligned with the Islamists, these warlords are clan-based. The government has already made deals with the clan leaders about seats at the government and at other peace negotiations. If the clan leaders perceive that the negotiations with the Islamists are heading in a direction that will see the Islamists (who are not clan-aligned) take a predominant role at the expense of the traditional clans, the warlords might have decided to attack the government and in doing so hope to derail those negotiations. Why not go after the Islamists? Because they are a harder target, for one, and anyway, they have the trust of the government, so it would have been much easier to get in close to deliver a blow.
- Foreign Power: It is possible that some foreign power (not the US, but perhaps country bordering on Somalia) was fearful of a fundamentalist Islamic nation on their doorstep. Like the warlords, the proper target would have been the Islamists themselves, but if the government was seen as aiding the Islamists in reaching their goals, eliminating the government would have complicated the work for the Islamists, buying some time.
Of course, these theories are mutually exclusive. If you believe that the government is preventing the Islamists from quickly overruning the country, the obvious suspects are the Islamists themselves, Islamist allies within the government, or al-Qaeda (or all three working in concert). If on the other hand, you believe the government is helping accelerate the Islamist plan by negotiating a power-sharing agreement, the suspects are the warlords, or a foreign power, or both.
Or maybe this has nothing to do with the negotiations, but is some personal vendetta being played out. Two bombs, though? I doubt it.
[Meanwhile, there have been no apparent changes in the status of the case of the murder of 20-year-old Yasmin Ashareh, found with her throat cut in the west-end of Toronto. Yasmin Ashareh is purportedly the daughter of Ahmed Awad Ashareh, a member of the Somali government, and a negotiator in the power-sharing talks with the Islamists. Police insist that the murder has no political or religious implications. A Nigerian refugee, William Imona-Russel, has been charged, but police have not discussed a possible motive. There is a publication ban on evidence.]
