The North Koreans and the US are might be getting ready to start shooting at each other, after a fashion:

The Pentagon activated its new U.S. ground-based interceptor missile defense system, and officials announced yesterday that any long-range missile launch by North Korea would be considered a "provocative act."

Two Navy Aegis warships are patrolling near North Korea as part of the global missile defense and would be among the first sensors that would trigger the use of interceptors, the officials said yesterday.

The U.S. missile defense system includes 11 long-range interceptor missiles, including nine deployed at Fort Greeley, Alaska, and two at Vandenberg Air Force Base, Calif. The system was switched from test to operational mode within the past two weeks, the officials said.

One senior Bush administration official told The Washington Times that an option being considered would be to shoot down the Taepodong missile with responding interceptors.

Imagine if this plays out. If the Americans miss, the Pentagon will have to put up with a lot of abuse from Democrats on Capital Hill about the useless boondoggle that is ballistic missile defense. But I think the Pentagon is willing to ride out that storm for a chance at a real live test.

And the generals and admirals must be pretty confident to take the gamble.

Now imagine if the North Korean missile gets knocked down.

First, a lot of naysayers will have to rework their criticisms. And the Pentagon will have a lot of new friends willing to fund more missile work and other weapons systems.

But the real effect will be on North Korea.

There will be the loss of face when the missile is lost. Of course, the North Korean government will never admit to a failure to their own people, but other governments will know what happened.

Loss of face is one thing. Loss of revenue is something else. When potential customers for this missile see it blasted out of the sky by the American destroyers, you can be sure they will wonder if their defence dollars would be best spent on fighter jets from France. For North Korea and its moribund economy, a loss of hard currency from missile sales could be disastrous.

In fact, I wonder just how bad it could be. Could the loss of revenue destabilize the government? If Kim Jong Il perceives a real threat to his power if the missile is destroyed, what would he do?

Delay the test? More loss of face. And fewer sales could still result if potential customers see Kim Jr step back from taking on American missile defence.

Stop the Americans? How? Send a Romeo- or Whiskey-class submarine after the Aegis destroyers? The Romeos date from the 50s; the Whiskeys from the 1970s. The Whiskeys might not even work anymore (the North Koreans only had 4, compared to over 20 Romeos). In any case, it seems unlikely that the old subs would pose a real threat, especially if a modern American attack sub is lurking near the Aegis destroyers to defend against such an attack.

Maybe the North Koreans will have a better chance sending a squadron of their missile boats. A launch of multiple SS-N-2 Styx missiles would give even an Aegis destroyer reason to be worried. I doubt many of the patrol boats would survive to return to home port, but then Kim would lose little sleep over that.

Even an unsuccessful attack might disrupt a launch of the anti-missile missiles. Not likely, but the North Koreans have few options.

And that's really the problem. The North Koreans have few options about anything. Belligerence is the only language they can use, because they saw what happened when the Soviet Union opened up under Mikhail Gorbachev. And North Korea is in far worse shape today than the Soviet Union was in the 80s. They insist on pushing and pushing, because they know if they stop, they'll collapse. But even as they push, they are egging on others to push back. So far, most have resisted the temptation to push as hard they are capable of pushing, knowing that pushing too hard could ignite a war on the peninsula. But the North Koreans just keep on pushing.

Update: Looks like the North Koreans are trying to find a way not to fire the missile:

North Korea said Wednesday it wants direct talks with the United States over its apparent plans to test-fire a long-range missile, a day after the country issued a bristling statement in which it declared its right to carry out the launch.

Tensions in the region have soared following intelligence reports that the North was fueling a ballistic missile believed capable of reaching U.S. territory. The United States and Japan have said they could consider sanctions against the impoverished state and push the U.N. Security Council for retaliatory action should the launch go ahead.

North Korea said in comments published Wednesday that its self-imposed moratorium on testing long-range missiles from 1999 no longer applies because it's not in direct dialogue with Washington, suggesting it would hold off on any launch if the U.S. agreed to new talks.

I don't think the sanctions worry the North Koreans too much. The fact is that sanctions can be busted, especially when there are governments out there more than happy to do anything that messes with US policy. Yeah, Iran, I'm looking at you. But having the missile knocked out of the sky by an American defence system? And a relatively immature fefence system at that? Kim Jong Il might simply be unwilling to take that risk, and is looking for a way out.

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