Angry in the Great White North
The cost of delusions
Sunday, April 30, 2006 at 09:36 PM

Read other posts by Steve Janke published by the National Post
Leader

Decent bit of political analysis on rabble from Universty of Winnipeg professor John Ryan, but only if you skip the delusional bits:

Jack Layton's latest pronouncements and actions show that he's already partially in bed with Stephen Harper, and it looks as if he wants to co-habit with him for the duration of this Parliament.

Also Layton has made it clear that the NDP is going to have an all-out fight with the Liberals in the next election, in the hopes of replacing the Liberals as the official opposition. This is sheer delusion, and dangerous delusion for both Canada and the NDP.

Of course, I take issue with the notion that something that is dangerous for the NDP is dangerous for Canada. I do that not because of my politics but on the basis of what I see as a poor logical construction. He argues that the NDP is delusional and makes a logical next deduction that being in a delusional state is dangerous to the NDP. But it's his politics, not his reason, that equates something that is dangerous to the NDP as dangerous to Canada. He mixes the eminently logical and the purely partisan in the same sentence.

It's the little things that transform what could be a good bit of political analysis into partisan propoganda. But it's not the only example of Ryan mixing his opinions, or even delusions, with facts or good logic.

A Conservative majority is one outcome, but it could also be destructive to the NDP. If the Liberals should get a reasonably good leader, say Ontario MPP Gerard Kennedy, this NDP strategy could lead them to a repeat of 1993, where from 43 seats the NDP were reduced to nine - and the Conservatives might still get a majority if they capture Quebec.

The NDP federal leadership seems oblivious to the fact that their current strategy is demoralizing to many in the party and to progressive-minded people in the public at large. It should come as no surprise that a continuation of these policies will result in fewer monetary contributions to the party and in a loss of votes. A recent poll has already shown a slide to 14 per cent from their 17.5 per cent share of the vote in the 2006 election.

Interesting that in his analysis, Ryan sees only the Conservatives and the Liberals as rivals to the NDP. I think that if Ryan is right, that NDP supporters are demoralized, that other left-wing parties, in particular the Greens, are in a position to draw the people away. In other words, the danger is really that the NDP is pushing supporters away while simultaneously there are alternative leftist parties that are pulling them away. Being blind to that fact compounds the problems for the NDP, who might be thinking, incorrectly, that they are the default party for leftists.

It seems that the NDP doesn't have any vision for this country or any articulated policy, other than getting additional seats in Parliament - hence the attack on the Liberals. Bluntly, this appears to be a stupid short-sighted policy, with no regard for Canada, or even for themselves.

Having a vision for Canada has not translated into a federal NDP government. Playing the politics game has not translated into a federal NDP government. Now if you were an idealist, which problem would you prefer to discuss? The second, of course. To me, the NDP is chock full of vision -- at least no more or less than the other parties. But for an NDP supporter, admission that the NDP vision is a political dead-end is horrifying. Better to insist that the problem is that the policies have not been explained properly, that there is a lack of vision. Much more comforting.

Another bit of willful blindness.

With most of the corporate elite and the owners of the media behind Harper - carefully grooming his image - and with the NDP fighting the Liberals, it's almost a certainty that the Conservatives will get a majority in the next election.

Of course, it is the standard complaint of the loser that the media was against him. Every party is guilty of that at one time or another, and every party can point to example after example to prove their case. For what it's worth, I've pointed out several occassions during the last election in which the CBC and other traditionally liberal media outlets were particularly supportive of the Conservatives, before it became clear that the Conservatives were going to win. I was taken to task by some readers for doing so, called naive for thinking the media was fairer than most people assumed. But blaming the media is a crutch. It's fine to blame them in a moment of frustration, but when the moment passes, you had better be over it.

Ryan seems to be not quite past the frustration stage.

But seriously, with all the hubbub about Stephen Harper's fight with the national press gallery over access, is it likely that the "corporate elite" is grooming Harper? What media owner trying to run a profitable paper would advise Harper not to talk to his reporters?

So Ryan can assume the NDP is indispensable to Canada's survival, he can ignore the Greens as a threat, he can blame the NDP communication people for not communicating enough vision, he can berate the media for being manifestly pro-Conservative -- but at the end of the day, voters know what the NDP stands for. The vast majority of the time they can guess what the NDP would say about any issue. The trick to do so is easy. Imagine that you work for a living (the NDP is focused on "working families"). Consider the issue and your opinion. Given that at the last election, the NDP garnered 17.5% of the popular vote (and that margin has eroded since then), you can bet whatever you think of that issue, there is a better than 80% chance that the NDP position is different.

OK, that was a bit glib. But the numbers are the numbers.

The lies that Ryan and the NDP tell themselves will not change those numbers, except to drive them lower.

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