Angry in the Great White North
Someone spiked Scott Brison's leadership bid
Wednesday, March 08, 2006 at 01:23 PM

Read other posts by Steve Janke published by the National Post
Leader

Who torpedoed Scott Brison's Liberal leadership bid?

The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has turned over an e-mail received from Liberal MP Scott Brison to police and regulators as part of a probe into the income-trust controversy that dogged the Liberals in the recent election campaign, The Globe and Mail has learned.

Sources said the former public works minister, a potential contender for the Liberal leadership, sent an e-mail to one of CIBC's employees the day before Ottawa announced its much-anticipated policy on income trusts last November, in which he suggested the recipient would likely be pleased by the decision. [emphasis added]

It wasn't the bank and it wasn't the RCMP. I say that because people in either of those organizations have little to gain from the leak and a lot to lose if they were revealed to be the source.

So that leaves someone in the Liberal Party itself. Presumably a few key Liberal cabinet colleagues were made aware of Scott Brison's meeting with the RCMP on January 18. The Prime Minister, House Leader Tony Valeri, Public Safety Minister Anne McLellan perhaps, since the RCMP was leading the investigation. Key people in the Prime Minister's Office. But no one else -- the election was only days away, and as bad as things were, a revelation like this could have destroyed the Liberals.

The Liberals end up losing the election on January 23 (though not as badly as some had expected), Paul Martin announces that he will step down, and major Liberal figures (Brian Tobin, John Manley, Frank McKenna, etc) announce that they will not run.

Suddenly second-stringers like Belinda Stronach, Ken Dryden, and Joe Volpe are leadership contenders. Include in that list Scott Brison.

So we have suspects -- Stronach, Dryden, etc -- with motives but no means. Certainly they are motivated to eliminate a potential leadership run by Brison. But how would they have known about his involvement in the Income Trust Scandal?

As I said, I can't believe that the knowledge of Brison's RCMP interview was widespread. Indeed, I expect the circle of people who knew was almost certainly kept very small.

That means one of these key people decided to spike Brison's bid. Is this person trying to help one of the other potential leadership candidates, or is this person just out to get Brison? Or did this person conclude that Brison would damage the party as leader, or even by running for leader? And more intriguing -- is this person acting alone, or with the knowledge of the power players in the former PMO, or even under the guidance of Paul Martin himself?

Or maybe the source of the leak was the bank or the RCMP after all.

And here's a very speculative and very unlikely scenario. What if David Emerson knew? I doubt he did, but let's say he knew or found out. He joins the Conservatives and brings this little nugget of knowledge. Next thing you know, it's splashed all over the papers. Why would the Conservatives have done this, if indeed they did, as unlikely as it is? Well, there could be better a time to reveal this, like during a leadership campaign itself, but that might be so far off in the future that it's impact would be minimal. In any case, Scott Brison might not even run. On the other hand, reveal it now, and suddenly you have a story competing for attention with the Emerson thing, which is good news for the Conservatives. Moreover, you bring the focus back to what the Liberals have been accused of doing (in this case, insider trading) which makes the Emerson thing look like small potatoes.

Just musing out loud.

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