How much heat will Jack Layton and the NDP take over this?
Over and over again, pundits are pointing to the the announcement of the RCMP criminal investigation into a leak in Liberal finance minister Ralph Goodale's office concerning income trust taxation as the turning point in the campaign.
Those pundits are absolutely right. I know because I agree with them. I have also investigated myself thoroughly, and can announce that I have found no evidence that I'm wrong about this.
OK, putting that bit of Goodale nonsense aside, let's not forget who launched the torpedo that seems to have sunk the Liberal ship.
It was the NDP under Jack Layton, with Judy Wasylycia-Leis pushing the button that put that torpedo in the water.
I'm not sure just how much we on the right appreciate the simmering anger that lies under the surface on Canada's left. Anger that is barely restrained and aimed right at the NDP.
If the vote goes well for the Conservatives, and especially if the Conservatives win enough seats that the Liberals and NDP together cannot block Stephen Harper's legislative agenda, many on the left will blame Jack Layton.
Sure the NDP is likely to have more seats tomorrow, but it has lost the balance of power. In the previous parliament, the NDP was able to make the Liberals dance to the NDP tune.
And remember too that the Conservatives and the Bloc Quebecois were unable to unseat Paul Martin, that is until Jack Layton decided to vote with them.
The impending Tory victory is thanks to the election the NDP allowed to happen, and thanks to the disaster that befell the Liberals courtesy of a letter to the RCMP sent by the NDP.
If the Conservatives succeed tonight in forming a government, and then succeed at proceeding with their legislative agenda, and further succeed at restoring conservatism as a legitimate choice in Canada, perhaps even the preferred choice, we'll have the NDP to thank for helping it happen.
The significance of this is not lost on many NDP supporters:
[I will not forget] the disengenuous BS income trust allegation. NDP is dead to me.
Another potential fallout for today is a realignment of the far left, perhaps a split in the NDP between the labour side and the radical side, with the Green Party and others picking up the radicals.
Jack Layton might end up regretting all the extra seats he's positioned to win tonight.
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Comments
You're courting danger there Steve. You might just get people like Robbie McLa-La-Land all up in a bunch if you ruin their delusion that the IT issue was a Conservative-made bomb.
Posted by: Surecure at January 23, 2006 02:14 PM
It looks like the solidarity of the NDP isn't all that secure, if that bulletin board is typical. They're festering and accusing each other and Layton of all kinds of wrongdoing.
I thought Layton's position was secure unless he lost his seat. Now I'm not so sure.
Posted by: Mac at January 23, 2006 02:14 PM
If not this breach of trust (ITscam), pick another.
I'm quite convinced the Liberals need to be removed from office for utter incompetence at the very least.
Heating rebates to jailed people....
Childcare for select few....
Budget surplus estimates off by 900%....
Posted by: at January 23, 2006 02:17 PM
If you are right, the fragmentation of the NDs and the already divided Grits will fare well for Tories in the future.
Posted by: civitatensis at January 23, 2006 02:18 PM
NEVER use this phrase "fare well for Tories in the future" some Liberal or MSM will twist it.
Ralph has always campained as Honest Ralph
thousands of joe six packs mainly retired NDP type being "hosed" out of nest egg money whern he Looked into Income trusts and one of his friends collecting millions does not look good on him. Other libs don't care if they have some air of helping their buddys and not being upfront with the truth. BUT Honest Ralph was made the finance minister after adscam just for that LOOk and now we find out it's hollow. Too Funny (for Ralph) not the Joe Six packs who lost money.
Posted by: robm at January 23, 2006 02:46 PM
Why don't we all thank "Get Back to Jack" for the opportunity to vote.
Secondly, Judy must have had pretty good information if she filed with the SEC and they are looking into it.
The pillage and plunder of ordinary Canadians has to stop whether it is against the taxpayer or investor. Guess what? We are all in this together and I don't see how alleged theft is helping any Canadian whether you are politically right, left or center.
The issue of theft cuts across party lines.
Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at January 23, 2006 02:53 PM
I think Jack is getting way too much blame for pulling the plug in November.
Remember what the alternative was - it wasn't steady-as-she-goes minority until 2008. No, it was election call in February 2006.
So Jack had two choices:
1) prop up the grits until February 2006 and be tarred throughout the campaign as Grit Jr, corruption lovers.
2) pull the plug in November and take your chances.
To see how well strategy 1) works, please refer to the results of 1974. The dippers almost got beat by Caouette and the moonbat creditistes!
Jack was choosing between less than ideal options. I think he chose wisely.
Posted by: groovy-on-granville at January 23, 2006 03:20 PM
"Another potential fallout for today is a realignment of the far left, perhaps a split in the NDP between the labour side and the radical side, with the Green Party and others picking up the radicals."
Iinterviewed all 5 Hull-Aylmer candidates and I found it quite interesting. I'd always thought that the Greens were more to the left than the NDP, but when asked to differentiate his party from the NDP, Christian Doyle said that his party "is more to the right. We don't say that we always need new laws to protect the environment. Our party prefers market-based incentives, like tax credits, to encourage people and businesses to make environmentally-friendly choices. And the NDP is strongly in favor of unions. We want fewer cars on the road, which is not a position helpful to the auto workers' union.""
And my editor met a person from the "Peace and ecology" party who said they started it up because they were fed up with the "corporate-beholden" Greens, LOL!
Posted by: JulieM at January 23, 2006 03:24 PM
I'd take anything from Democratic Underground with a shaker of salt. The people on there are, to put it bluntly, insane.
I remember when the blackout happened a few years ago and one of them wrote a post claiming it was some kind of electromagnetic pulse weapon George W. Bush had created. And he wasn't trying to be funny.
Posted by: thickslab at January 23, 2006 03:28 PM
If the NDP had continued to prop up the Liberals until Gomery released his final report, the stench of corruption would be sticking to the Dippers just as surely as it clings to the Libs.
Posted by: Ed Minchau at January 23, 2006 03:54 PM
I'm not sure he libs have anyone to blame but themselves (I am sure that's never going to happen) for the IT problem. If honest Ralphie boy had stood up at the onset and said, yes this does smell a bit, lets call in the RCMP and let them sort it out, they never would have had the problem
Posted by: Bob Musselman at January 23, 2006 04:01 PM
The NDP are only relevent in that they split the left of this country.
Let the lefties point fingers, get mad, and jump up and down over tonight's election results.
Excuse me now, I am composing a thank-you card to send to Jack.
Posted by: Pete at January 23, 2006 04:43 PM
I think Jack Layton has run a decent campaign. Why people expect him to kowtow to the liberals is beyond me. Martin and the liberals treated him like a stuffed owl for the months leading up to the fall of the government. I'm expecting the NDP to pick up some serious seats off of the libs.
..and I've always thought the wheels came off of the lib machine on the 27th of December. The fall out from the Toronto gun battle and Klander snafu made some of the media examine the liberals more closely.
The Goodale problem was a coffin nail...but the liberal corpse was put in the coffin on the 27th.
Posted by: downtownslater at January 23, 2006 04:57 PM
Your analysis is good, assuming that the Cons get to form a government. I still think that if the Cons come in with only a few more seats than the Libs, Martin will insist on forming a govt with the NDP, if the sum of their seats is much greater than the Cons can muster. Jack Layton as finance minister. No wait, HEALTH minister. There you go. Or maybe this past decade of Lib rule has left me too punch drunk to reason properly. I really am hoping for a strong Con govt, majority if at all possible. Fortunately, I have to work until 20:30, to keep my mind of of the election until then.
Posted by: kbenn at January 23, 2006 05:19 PM
Jack had only two choices during the 38th session:
TO make himself look like having ANY influence on the Canadian parliament
1- hold up the grits and PUSH some NDP issues and bills - DONE
2- ONce he realized Martin was using him to drag his sorry ast into 20006 and get past the second instalment of Gomery which ONLY details what the gov't should do to fix the situation. PULL THE PLUG
He did and we got the election = Thanks Jack
MArtin was stupid enough to whine on the election timing and make it drag till the 23rd giving time for his party to make ALL the mistakes. Word is he wanted the heating cheques to com out to ensure the low income voter. That blew up too, because all the inmates are getting them.
Posted by: rob at January 23, 2006 05:32 PM
If dippers and real lefties get mad at Jack, then they have no vision. A) As pointed out above, he took the more palatable of two (from his POV) rather unpalatable options. B) With the possible (probable?) implosion of the Liberal Party coming very soon, the NDP can really establish itself as a left-of-center party, vs. the CPC, and build for the future.
Wait, did I ask if these people have no vision? Scratch that, of course they don't. They just want to bitch and vent on the 'net and figure out how to re-demonize Harper. The prospect of real power and responsibility would be too frightening, I'm sure.
Posted by: Meg Q at January 23, 2006 06:20 PM
Rob:
I am sure Paul Martin would have loved to reign until 20,006; of course this would be perpetual Liberal rule and he would have renamed himself Methusaleh Martin.
Outside of the above typo, the analysis is pretty good from "Get Back to Jack"'s point of view.
The Conservatives come off pretty good as well as they have been hammering the Libs ever since the 2004 election to fever pitch when BS crossed the floor.
As a moniker for the Liberal campaign "Buzz Bunny" who started out in the NDP camp, became Liberal and advocates voting Bloc in Quebec.
Now there is a consistent political philosophy, right in front of BS and PM Paul Martin who looked on approvingly, and didn't say anything.
For that they deserve to be given a proper voters LION mauling at the ballot box.
Posted by: Hans Rupprecht at January 23, 2006 06:23 PM
The Liberal Party is the reason the NDP have been marginalized all these decades. If the NDP want to ever assume a kick at the can, they need to push the Liberals off their political niche. Hence, Layton, as a Political Science professor, was quite correct in targetting Martin more than Harper, particularly after he was betrayed by Martin re 'deal'.
Democratic reform is not a partisan issue, it is a democratic issue, and there are many democratic disenchanted Liberals that will support an NDP-Conservative common purpose in implementing Canada's sorely-needed democratic reforms.
In European terms, the NDP is a very moderate social democratic party, and represents the natural 'left' side of a two-party modern democracy. Few democracies are so skewed that they become one party-dominated states, where this party sits on the centre robbing votes from both the 'left' and 'right' by virtue of false rhetoric and pulling off the con of 'strategic voting'.
If the Conservatives win and the NDP makes a strong showing, the NDP can have the chance to become the 'left' alternative to the Conservatives. Many former disenchanted 'left' Liberals would then join the NDP, and certainly, the NDP would need to shed its Union affiliation.
Posted by: brock at January 23, 2006 07:51 PM
I'm sure that all future NDP leaders will remember what catering to the unions got them this time around.
Apparently, the CAW screw job hasn't hurt the NDP campaign. They'd be wise not to go seeking it.
Posted by: framework at January 23, 2006 08:26 PM
The SEC? I don't think they need any information to investigate anyone. When you consider how often PMPM and his cohort went out of their way to stick a finder in the eye at the white house. I think the threshold was very very low on this investigation. An eye for an eye...
Posted by: Curtis at January 23, 2006 08:26 PM
 
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