The unfounded belief that the MSM might be switching sides can be shot down easily with this kind of polling. The MSM requests the polls so they have a say in what the question is, as well as how they report the results.

Hopefully posts like yours help minimize strategic voting based on unfounded polls that have margins of error as big as the gaps in party support percentage making it a statistical tie (or close to it) for most of the 56 day run.

Alan Greg, SES, Pollara, etc. all need to go find productive ways to support parties.....like stuffing envelopes or sticking lawn signs into the ground.

Posted by: TrustOnlyMulder at January 21, 2006 07:38 AM

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I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I have a friend who said that Allen Gregg used to be an internal polster for the Liberals (I think with Leger Marketing). When he saw the Conservative spike of 18 points, my friend laughed and said he guaranteed it would settle down in two or three days and align more closely with the other polling companies -- he said that this was designed to make it look as though Conservative support was collapsing.
He said the way they did the sampling was different or something or the total of people they used.
I don't understand much about that stuff, but when I saw the sudden drop, it made sense.

Posted by: canadianna at January 21, 2006 07:59 AM

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Even though the CBC reporters get slagged -- and deservedly so -- one of the worst reporters in this campaign is CTV's Peter Murphy.

In his report yesterday, Murphy stated that the Conservatives are slipping in the polls and that the Liberals have the momentum, and he used the earlier Gregg poll to make his claim.

In fact, things are static, with all the other polls showing the CPC maintaining their 8-10 point lead.

Murphy stated that the Liberals were up by 4 points and the CPC down by 4, putting the Libs at 28 and the CPC at 38.

Why Murphy chose to make his case that the Libs are on the comeback by using a poll whose numbers are discredited by the fact that they were out of whack with all the other polls is consistent with the rest of his shoddy reporting throughout this election.

Posted by: Brad at January 21, 2006 08:24 AM

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I just listened to a broadcast with Robert Fife on CTV where he said that the Liberals were giving body blows to Harper and he was on the Run - Then he said that Harper was getting testy - then show a 3 second clip where Harper said (and believe me I thought he was calm) I have been cle.... - then he was cut off. Then they talk about how the conservatives are hiding candidates.

I am sick and tired of how the Liberal machine has permeated this country and all things that we take for granted - voting (see Small Dead Animals re voting irregularities in Edmonton), MSM - who blatantly slant their stories using words that convey the opposite of what we are watching with our own eyes - I truly believe that their is so much corruption that it will be shocking to find out how much on Tuesday morning.

I sent an e-mail to CTV about the news report - I would encourage others to do the same - I think if they get thousands of e-mails they will have to take notice.

Posted by: Alberta Girl at January 21, 2006 08:58 AM

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First, Gregg was the Conservative party pollster from 1979 to 1993. He never worked for the Libs.

Second, whether the poll was rolled up over three days or two really doesn't make that big of a difference in error margins. Moreover, it shouldn't make any difference in the actual point estimate. So, at best, we can just be more certain about the range of the first results than the second.

Third, I am not sure which poll is worse in terms of priming. The first calls up considerations of momentum and trajectory, which will most certainly favour the Conservatives. The second calls up considerations of change, which, given some residual doubts about the Cons, probably pushes some votes towards the Liberals. Both primes are legitimate, as both reflect rhetoric in the campaign. Which one is "right' is impossible to know, really. What is clear, however, is that there is no conspiracy here. And, if there is one, it's just as easy to argue that it's for the Conservatives, as the first survey was potentially designed to prime considerations which favour them.

Posted by: Peter Loewen at January 21, 2006 09:12 AM

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Take a look at old Robert Fife if there ever was a screaming liberal, (ever noticed the gagging action saying that word invokes) Media people for the most part a three time divorced,alchololic losers who couldn't get a meaningful job anywhere else with their left wing views and inability to make a decision. They are spinless miserable in their approach to life unable to run their own business so the gravitate to jobs where they can make others lives miserable with the daily rags like The snob and snail or the edmonton urinal. these people along with polsters have no balls. Only a nutless man can straddle a fence all day without pain these are the msm.

Posted by: bartinsky at January 21, 2006 09:36 AM

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I've been following this one closely, too, and I have to say, the fault really lies with everyone in the media who jumped on the *initial* poll. I'm working in a political office right now ;-), and on release of that poll, everyone in it collectively shook their heads over coffee and said "rogue poll," as in "20th out of 20," one of those wonky polls that inevitably are part of the polling business. With several organizations (like SES) running tracking polls and not picking up the same second surge of Tory support, it was totally irresponsible to write huge headlines saying such a surge was in play based on one poll alone.

So, a few days later, the inaccurate blip disappears, what do editors do? Instead of the right thing - a story saying the poll might have been wrong, oh horror! - they magically report the numbers in *both* cases as factual. What they should have done was a front page story saying "media addicted to polls beyond all possible reason."

So, Steve, I think this issue is a good target, but I think your analysis focuses on the wrong aspect. The new poll is consistent with every other poll in the nation on spread, margin, etc., even if the tracking period is smaller. The other poll was inconsistent, so it should be the one that's suspect. I know this isn't the hoped for result (better to have had 42% and lost it?), but objectively, it makes sense.

And note: Canadianna's ridiculous "gregg was a Liberal pollster rumor" is exactly why I still have serious problems with Blogs as a serious medium, as it seems there is no effort by too many to bother to check facts before blithely publishing them for millions to read (a shot not directed at Steve, obviously). All it takes is a two-second google search to refute that rumor, but too many people are obviously in such a hurry to see a conspiracy that they can't be bothered to take the time.

Posted by: Conservative Hack at January 21, 2006 10:59 AM

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Conservative Hack --Canadianna's ridiculous "gregg was a Liberal pollster rumor"
I posted this here because I figured Steve's site is like a clearing house and if I'd heard wrong information, someone would let me know. My comment was not phrased in a manner that suggested I knew this to be true.
I'm sorry if you think that my posing this was irresponsible and has tarnished the credibility of I'm glad someone posted a clarification and I accept that the information I heard was wrong.
BTW, I did a google search and came up with absolutely nothing either way.

Posted by: canadianna at January 21, 2006 11:42 AM

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I think Guys Llike Allan Gregg should keep his comments to himself. The commentary he is giving is not on the surveys unless he really has indepth surveys. He can only comment on the twisted questions put forward. However the numbers that interest me the most is the undecided, the need for a change and who will make the best Prime Minister. On Monday you will see a 15 point spread between the top leaders and Martins lies won't hold water..

Posted by: Dayton at January 21, 2006 11:48 AM

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Search 'Allan Gregg Pollster' and the first two entries that come up are:

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1. The Globe and Mail: Allan Gregg discussed the Tory surge in the polls

"gregg Allan Gregg, chairman of The Strategic Counsel, ... From 1979 thorugh 1993, he was known as the official pollster of the Progessive Conservative Party ..."

www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060117.wlivegregg0118a/BNStory/specialDecision2006/ - 36k - 19 Jan 2006 - Cached - Similar pages

2. Allan Gregg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Allan Gregg (born 1952) is a Canadian pollster, political advisor, and pundit. Gregg has long been involved in Canadian politics, but decided to travel ..."

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Gregg - 15k - Cached - Similar pages

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The first paragraph of the Gregg wiki finishes this way: "...south to work with master Republican pollster Richard Wirthlin and learned much from him. He then returned to Canada in the late 1970s. He first came to national attention as the national campaign secretary of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada successful effort in the 1979 federal election."

Nothing personal, Canadianna, not blaming you, just suggesting a blog read by thousands of people may not be the best place to check a rumor, given that it can be the launching pad to spread that rumor. Yet somehow the blogosphere has made people comfortable with doing just that. To pick an extreme comparison, imagine if it was ok to call into a Saskatchewan radio show to "check a rumor" that a Tory candidate had been convicted of sexual harassment? - ;-)

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But enough of this, why is everyone reading this blog, dammit? Get out into the snow and onto the doorsteps and pull the vote! The election's in two days already!

Posted by: Conservative Hack at January 21, 2006 12:18 PM

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No, Conservative Hack - you're absolutely right. It was the wrong thing to do. I used different search term than yours -- I tried Allen Gregg with 'liberal' 'bio' 'history' etc. But you're right, putting it on such a well-read blog wasn't smart.

Posted by: canadianna at January 21, 2006 12:27 PM

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More signs, more door knocking, more of what ever it takes.
Pat

Posted by: Pat at January 21, 2006 12:36 PM

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Simple solution to media bias. Open up the country to Dishnetwork and Directv - as the CPC said they would do in thelast election. I have a gray market version, and have not watched CBC, CTV or Global more than 5 times in the past 2 years. They all suck.

GLobal tv universe is available so long as Libranos can't get kickbacks from their media friends.

Posted by: Dalton mcGuilty at January 21, 2006 12:39 PM

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"And note: Canadianna's ridiculous "gregg was a Liberal pollster rumor" is exactly why I still have serious problems with Blogs as a serious medium, as it seems there is no effort by too many to bother to check facts before blithely publishing them for millions to read (a shot not directed at Steve, obviously). "

This comment is EXACTLY why I read blogs for my news and info rather than the MSM.

I don't want to "do a google search" to ensure that all the info I read is accurate. I read a certain number of blogs that I feel are credible(Like Angry, SDA, etc) and I know that the info is correct.And if a mistake occurs it will receive the same attention that the incorrect info did. I also read the comment section knowing full well it is populated with people who may be just a "far out" as I may be at times. While I beleive most of what I read in the body of the blog I am sceptical of what I read in the comments.
And isn't that how blogs (political ones, at least)are supposed to work?

Horny toad

Posted by: at January 21, 2006 12:45 PM

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"And note: Canadianna's ridiculous "gregg was a Liberal pollster rumor" is exactly why I still have serious problems with Blogs as a serious medium, as it seems there is no effort by too many to bother to check facts before blithely publishing them for millions to read (a shot not directed at Steve, obviously). "

This comment is EXACTLY why I read blogs for my news and info rather than the MSM.

I don't want to "do a google search" to ensure that all the info I read is accurate. I read a certain number of blogs that I feel are credible(Like Angry, SDA, etc) and I know that the info is correct.And if a mistake occurs it will receive the same attention that the incorrect info did. I also read the comment section knowing full well it is populated with people who may be just a "far out" as I may be at times. While I beleive most of what I read in the body of the blog I am sceptical of what I read in the comments.
And isn't that how blogs (political ones, at least)are supposed to work?

Horny toad

Posted by: Horny Toad at January 21, 2006 12:47 PM

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Never underestimate the lunacy of the southern ontario voter.
Martin's lies do work, just not on intelligent people.
Spread will not be 15 points, but I sure would like to see it.

Posted by: Brian at January 21, 2006 12:49 PM

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On Monday, January 23, 2006, all Canadians, who have suffered from demagogy, deception and lies of the Libreals and Paul Martin will hear the loss of the election for them.

Prime Minister Paul O'GULAG McBinStronach and his Liberals will experience what means the expanion of poverty, gangs, deportation of academic immigrants, slavery, patronage sustem for their loyalists and friends, exploitation and the political trickery.

Giusseppe Volpe, Mario Silva, Tony Ianno, Tony Valeri, Ruth Thorkelson, Scott Reid, Tim Murphy, David Petyerson, Peter Nicholoson, John Duffy, David Herle, Terrie O' Leary, Maurice F. Strong and many rich people of Toronto's Bay Street will hear the voice of peopleof Canada, who are punishing them.

Punishment for those Liberals who have expanded GULAG of poverty, unemployment, humiliation, and the gradual deaths.

Mario Silva, who is not an adult person, is a person who ignores the voices of people; he is very very ignorant to the voices and the rights of people.

Giussppe Volpe, who was a teacher and later a principal in a school, is one of the strongest and biggest supoorter of the King of GULAGs, Paul Martin in Canada.

He has no qualification; he is fully emptied from humanity; he is emptied from beihg honest.

Tony Ianno is proud of having a seat near Paul Martin in cabinet; he is a person who is ego centric and unqialified for being even en employee of a bakery in downtown of Toronto!

David Herle, Tim Murphy, Blinda Stronach and others are those, who feel themselves as the servicemen and agents for the wills of the Captain of CSL, who has ruined all hopes of people for the politics of truth.

On Monday, we will will see how people of Canada will throw away all these agaents of the politics of lies and deception into the garbage of history.

Taliban in Afganistan, Idi Amin in Uganda, Pol Pot in Cambodia and Agustino Pinochet in Chile, all were the agents of the politics of lies and GULAGs.

The GULAG makers of Canada are mourning for their loss on Monday.

On Monday, people will see how beautiful it is to throw a way these usless and harmful politicians into the garbage of history.

I as a scientist with a PhD degree in the biomedical sciences from Germany, after more than 2 years and thousands applications for employment to all centres, to MPs, to Ministers and PMO, I have been ignored.

Paul Martin and his Liberals have terrorized me and my professional career, although I have a recognized and accepted PhD in Canada.

Bioterrorism in its governemntal form is not unknow for those people who know the symptoms of this misery.

I am very disappointed.

Yours sincerely,

A. Diba, PhD

Posted by: Abbas Diba at January 21, 2006 01:05 PM

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When the real "numbers" are counted Monday night and they do not jive with the MSM wishful numbers that had been promoted as accurate polling...by let's say a 5% discrepency or better, then we will see the MSM and their lackie pollsters handed a severence notice from the public credibility department...'bout time too.

Posted by: at January 21, 2006 01:11 PM

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It's a shame that what ever credability that Murphy had is being exchanged for a late in the election shot at disinformation.

Posted by: Pat at January 21, 2006 01:26 PM

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WE have Comical Ali running our media!

Posted by: at January 21, 2006 01:53 PM

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Diba, post once and then think of something else to say. This constant trolling on every thread has got to stop! I admire your dedication, but you are getting annoying!

Posted by: Yukon Gold at January 21, 2006 02:22 PM

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I have to agree with Horny Toad. I don't think the comments section of Blogs were ever meant or for that matter could it ever be enforced to the strict rules of absoulute accuracy.

Steve's posts need to be accurate but the comments are as much a temperature gauge as anything else.

I have also noticed that once something is posted in comments section folks like yourself Conservative Hack tend to set the record straight.

The participation is far more important.

The strength of a blog will come down to it's integrity. The participants have to want it to be honest and correct. The success of SDA and The Angry beaver are it's ability to draw into the discussion those that have never had a forum to do so.

If their comments can tend to be a little innacurate from time to time is a price that needs to be paid.

Canadianna's willingness to admit to her mistake and demure to Conservative Hacks greater experience is the essence of what makes these blogs great.

Posted by: at January 21, 2006 03:58 PM

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Conservative Hack, this is the comment section, and if someone thinks they know or heard something , nothing wrong with posting it. The other's with more knowledge will set it straight in a hurry as is the case here. It's not a one way medium like a newspaper article.

Posted by: Michel at January 21, 2006 03:59 PM

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I'm just curious why Stephen Harper declined to be on Canada AM. I find it a bit curious that the other leaders answered questions but Harper didn't bother to show. Is he hiding from something or is he just afraid that he might slip up? Now I'm curious. At first I thought he just wasn't invited but they went on TV and said that he decided he didn't have time. Something fishy about that one.

Posted by: Frank at January 21, 2006 04:06 PM

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THE BLACK CLOUDS AND LOSS OF ELECTION FOR THE LIBERALS



The big problem on Monday, January 23, 2006 is that Paul Martin's Liberals will fail to understand that the election is a political battle because our people in Canada would convince our chicken politicians, who call themselves as the Liberals to pull out.
Most Arrogant-Yet-Chicken Politicians will understand why people don't like them any more.

When these Liberal's politicians like Paul Martin are rushing around Canada and behaving like the chikcen with their heads cut off; and are accusing other politicians and the foreign countries for the GULAG of Canada, then people are going to punish them on the upcoming elction on Monday.


People are full aware of the expanison of GULAG of poverty, unemployment, addictions, slavery, gangs, crimes and the gradual deaths in many major cities, which are the impacts of years cutting of the budget in the social programs, employment insurance, housing, education and health care issues.


People know very well the roles of Paul Martin and his Liberals as the dearest darlings of TORONTO's Bay Street for the misery of their country.

Paul Martin and his Liberals, instead of respecting of scientists and academic immigrants, they have deported them into thetorture's chambers of GULAG of unemployment, poverty, slavery, ignorings, humiliation, ailments and the gradual deaths.

The scientists in Canada need to study and to know what chickens are these Liberals who are rushing around the country with their heads cut off and are causing harms to the lives of people and are promoting the politics of lies and decption in Canada.

As we know chickens, along with quail, pheasants, and turkeys, belong to the order Galliformes. They are used in biomedical research for studies in neurology, embryology, endocrinology, microbiology, the skeletal system and nutrition; but what chickens are the Liberals, who are not beneficial to people but also they are GULAG- MAKERS of the country for destructive biopolitics.

Those Liberals, who have not learned and don't want to learn the alphabet of the PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY and RESPONSIBILITY in their schools, have been appointed in many strategic positions of the country in the instiutions and departments; they are appointed because they enjoy from the patronage advatages of the prime minister, who appointes thousands his own people and friends in thousands positions.

Paul Martin indirectly says: forget about the Westminister-style democracy and the role of Parliament!

As we know, recently, in the election, Paul Martin said that he has very good DNA for the National Unity in Canada with the characteritstic flags of Liberia and Barbados in his sheeps; hence, the scientists doubt whether or not he has any humans' DNA!

Most chicken genes have equivalents in human beings, so using the chicken to identify what genes are for has a direct impact on our understanding of human biology. The scientists are experimenting Martin's genes for the National Unity of Canada.

Paul Martin's claims for having very high quality of the human's genes or the human's DNA for the National Unity, is a matter of surprising in the world of science and and politics; it is also a matter of doubt for many people who know that he is a big liars.

His friends in the politics of lies and decption are Blinda Stronach Bin Magna, Tony Valeri Bin Real State, Tony Ianno Bin Ignoring, Mario Silva Bin Chicken, Scott Reid Bin Beer & Popcorn, David Herle Bin Earnscliffe & CSL, Ruth Thorkelson Bin Forest & Lies, Tim Murphy Bin Bay Street's Law and some others, whose genes and DNAs are not clear-cut determined if they are real parts of the humans' genoms or the chickens' genoms??

If the Liberals in the Paul Martin's party have the genes, which might be the parts of the genes inn the chikckens, then the political observers after discussions with the molecular biologists must compromise for any appropriate results; some nurologists are guessing that these Liberals may have the chickens' brains, which are inappropriate for working in the government; they are the chickens' brains and the government's responsibilities are huge and like a dinasaur; how can a brain of a chicken function in the body of a dinasaur?

The scientists are hoping that for many gene-function experiments in the genes of the politicians in the Liberal party like Paul martin, who are claiming that they have the best DNA for the Nationa Unity; these Liberals' chicken cell cultures and embryos will eventually prove to be better test subjects for helping to people who would like to participate in the upcoming election on Monday, January 23, 2006 than laboratory mice, who are not the politicians in the Liberal party.


I am a scientist with a PhD degree in the biomedical sciences from the School of Medicine in Germany; my qualifications and PhD have been recognized and accepted in Canada, but these Liberals and Paul Martin are ignoring my voice and my rights to life.

After more than 2 years and thousands applications to all institutions, to MPs, to Ministers, to Public Service Commission, to Human Resources and skills development and to the Prime Minister's Office, they have ignored me; they have ruined my life; they have ruined my professional development despite having an accepted and recognized PhD in Canada.

Bioterrorism of the Liberals means shooting into the brains of scientists and academic immigrants who are victims of the politics of lies and decption.

Definition of bioterrorism is based on harms on the bios of people; Paul martin and his Liberals in Canada are shooting into brains of scientists; the Charter of Rights and Freeoms is a kind of toy for their games in the politics.

Paul Martin and his Liberals are not believing on the Charter of Rights.

If we have two politics: the politics of fear and the politics of trust, then people know Paul Martin and his Liberals have chosen the politics of fear.

The politics of trust means eleimination of GULAGs and trust to people; the Liberals and Paul Martin are not trusting to people of Canada.

The politics of fear is the instrument of Paul Martin and his Liberals.

They have terrorized over 2 years of my life; they ruined my professional career in Canada.

They are committing BIOTERRORISM; I expect the independent judiciary council will judge these crimes.

Every crime must be punished.

On Monday, January 23, 2006, people of Canada will punish the politics of lies and deception of these pseudo-Liberals who have created GULAG against the lives of people.


I thank you for your attention.


Yours sincerely,
A. Diba, PhD

Posted by: Abbas Diba at January 21, 2006 04:20 PM

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Frank, You're curious? Ask Paul where the money is. I'm not an accountant but even I can do that math. What is Paul Martin hiding? Just give back the money Paul. I don't care if it bankrupts the Liberal party. It's not your money.
I'm curious where the money is. SHOW ME THE MONEY.

Posted by: Phil at January 21, 2006 04:44 PM

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Exactly, Phil! Where is the money? Did Gomery have free access to all accounts, including the Liberal's accounts, for forensic audit? If so, where are the results? If not, WHY NOT??

ps: Abbas strikes again!!

Posted by: Mac at January 21, 2006 05:05 PM

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Back to the issue of polls and "tracking". Bourque lists 17 polls since Januarary 4. 16 of these have the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals as 11% =/- 5%. One poll (by Gregg) is slightly beyond the 95% confidence interval. That is not unexpected in a sample of this size. The conclusion of this is that there has been no significant movement in the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals since January 4. Just think of how many commentators would be out of work if the man on the street knew some basic statistics.

Posted by: Peter at January 21, 2006 05:21 PM

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Warren Kinsella and Ipsos Reid are saying this election was over two weeks ago and Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have won. End of story. The show is over.

The MSM message is really about ensuring Paul Martin remains opposition leader. The fight is no longer about Stephen Harper but he is being used to scare NDP leaning voters to strategically vote Liberal in order to ensure the Liberals stay ahead of the Bloc and NDP. As Leader of the Opposition, Martin can possibly hang on to fight another day. But if the Liberals fall to third or fourth, then the party itself may become such financial liabilty that would be unable to find new leadership, particularly in the face of renewed scandal investigations.

Which is why we see the very partisan Liberal slanted reporting. The Liberals are calling in all favours. The Toronto Star would not want Liberals to slip out of second place. This will have no effect on the Conservatives, other than try to manipulate the vote in ridings where the Conservatives could win, spliting votes up the middle.

Which is why you see Buzz campaigning with Belinda. It would appear she needs Liberal-leaning NDP voters in order to secure a victory.

The conservative minority is the best bet. Arguably, that would suit the Conservatives just fine. Canadians probably do not want another election for a while, and Liberals will not be able to afford an election as well as a leadership race for the forseable future. So the GST cuts and the child care credit will show up in the first budget and be passed. Long gun control and Kyoto will just fade away, and opposition MPs will not stop tighter criminal sentences for violent crime. We may finally get some helicopters, and Prime Minister Harper will spend a weekend in Crawford Texas, and everyone will get a pony and missile defense. YEAAAA!

Posted by: john at January 21, 2006 08:04 PM

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The one thing that we need to remember is the the undecided is still at 12-19 percent. Undecided voters typically vote for status quo(i.e. Liberals). So if the Liberals can get even half of the undecided votes on Monday, and the other parties split the undecided vote, then we should see a Liberal minority victory.

Posted by: Garrett at January 21, 2006 08:15 PM

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The SC-Gregg poll that showed an 18 point lead was clearly a rogue poll. The lead was never that big.

The Conservative lead hasbeen steady at 6-8% for well over a week now. It's not moving.

Posted by: Toronto Tory at January 21, 2006 09:12 PM

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I suspect that the huge lead was bogus, but could someone have created the huge lead in order to announce it disappeared? Just to create "momentum"?

Posted by: Steve Janke at January 22, 2006 09:12 PM

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