From the Globe and Mail via Bourque:

Ben's Motel, a mundane watering hole with a neon-lit bar, Formica tables and a couple of slot machines facing the main street of this now-faded historic town, may seem an odd place to search for a potential wellspring of Conservative Party renewal in Quebec.

What is remarkable are the dozen or so people sitting around a group of tables pushed together in the bar, a mixture of anglophones and francophones, a sprinkling of municipal politicians and a recently retired activist from the pulp and paper union. They are all former long-time federal Liberals; until recently, one was still a member of the Pontiac Liberal Riding Association executive.

They are all there to endorse Lawrence Cannon, the Conservative candidate for this riding that stretches more than 200 kilometres along the Quebec side of the Ottawa River and up into rocks-and-logs hinterland. He is potentially the Conservatives' ace up their sleeve in Quebec.

What happens here on Jan. 23 could have implications far beyond this riding, which has previously been taken for granted as a federalist, mostly Liberal, duchy because of its proximity to Ottawa and Ontario. The riding could launch a credible Conservative presence in Quebec where there is only a lacuna now. If Stephen Harper wins a minority government and Mr. Cannon wins his seat, he will be a major player in Quebec and in the country.

I certainly had no idea how important this would be when I first started investigating the problems with the incumbent Liberal MP David Smith, and his firm Abotech:

But can he win Pontiac? Liberal MP David Smith got 48 per cent of the vote in 2004, compared with 33 per cent for the Bloc Quebecois and 28 per cent for the Conservatives.

Mr. Cannon's chances are improved by the whiff of scandal enveloping the incumbent Mr. Smith. Claiming aboriginal status because his maternal great-grandmother was native, Mr. Smith incorporated Abotech, a computer services consulting company that has received about $1-million in contracts through a program intended to encourage aboriginal entrepreneurs.

Read the whole column, and then be ready to follow this particular riding on January 23.

One of the concerns, of course, is that the Bloc Quebecois could win if Daivd Smith and Lawrence Cannon split the federalist vote. Well, guess what? Some people think it'll make little difference for local constituents:

After Mr. Cannon moved on, some of the mill workers talked about their concern that if they vote Conservative, it could reduce the Liberal plurality to the point where the Bloc goes up the middle to win.

"What if they do?" asked Ron Stafford, one of the recent Conservative converts.

"It will be just one more guy sitting on his ass [a reference to Mr. Smith's low profile in Parliament and in the region]. Let's not get distracted by this fear thing."

Don't get distracted by the fear thing. Good advice for life, I think.

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