Actually, just about the entire poll shift came in the West, where the poll numbers are still not quite with the vote was last year (Cons +20, SES poll had Cons +18).

My guess is, Harper had actually made quite a bit of progress "down east" for a while, but it was camouflaged by a surprising Liberal spike in BC. If BC is now back to normal, this could be a long month for Martin.

And heaven help Martin if this is because it's just dawning on BC voters that this is a federal election rather than a provincial.

Posted by: D.J. McGuire at December 30, 2005 01:27 PM

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Hey Angry,

The Liberals low water mark is 28% (Turner)
The high mark is 41-44%, even Trudeau couldn't get higher than that. So 35% is the midway point,there is alot of bleeding that can happen.

Harper needs to keep the boot on their throat this time, without looking angry.

Posted by: Derek at December 30, 2005 01:31 PM

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To get these results, the results of the 400 polled last night had to be Liberals 29, Conservatives 38, NDP 14, Bloq 13.

There's a problem with the SES numbers for Ontario: They don't add up to 100; they add up to 102. SES screwed up at least one of the numbers, I suspect that of the Greens. Taking only the Conservative and Liberal numbers, and making the assumption they're correct, they would show that of the approximately 130 respondents from Ontario, an equal number answered Conservative as answered Liberal.

This is, of course, meaningless because of the small sample size. However, it will become meaningful when tonight's and Monday's results are factored in. If, indeed, the Conservatives are ahead by more than 5 points, it's a whole new ball game. We could even see the Liberals dropping while the NDP gains. Fourth party status anyone?

Posted by: Patrick at December 30, 2005 02:39 PM

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The trend lines for Ontario show a crossover point about Jan 20th ... great time!

Atlantic is even worse.

Yeah, Angry, it's the underlying trends that are material. All I can say, thanks for a long campaign because this is all about changing long-rooted perceptions.

Posted by: Erik Sorenson at December 30, 2005 03:00 PM

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The Liberals are blowing this campaign BIG-TIME. It's almost unbelievable how badly this is going for them.

Regarding what you said above:

"Atlantic Canada: The Liberals drop stay steady at 42, while the Conservatives poll into a tie, going from 37 to 42, picking up support at the expense of the NDP, who went from 17 to 13."

I wonder if this is quite accurate: "picking up support at the expense of the NDP". This makes it sound as though NDP supporters are switching to Conservative, a prospect I find somewhat unlikely due to their divergent political positions.

I realize this may not be quite what you meant, and I'm not trying to split hairs. Rather, a different, perhaps more accurate, take on this has interesting implications: maybe what's actually happening is that Liberal supporters are switching to the Conservatives, while NDP supporters are switching to the Liberals out of simple fear of a Conservative government.

If this is indeed what is happening, it is unpleasant for NDP supporters like myself. That NDP supporters would switch to the Libs after an annoucement of a criminal investigation into the Libs seems to indicate cynical political maneuvering by NDP supporters. I sincerely hope this is not the case, but if it is, I have a simple question for these folks: WHY? Why have so little faith in the party that best represents your beliefs that you would switch to a corrupt party? Why allow yourself to be swayed so much by fear?

I find the prospect of a Conservative government as worrisome as the next NDPer. But voting for a party that is corrupt, incompetent and devoid of leadership is cynical, demeaning and undemocratic. It's one thing to vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out when the Liberals have sensible policies, a strong leader and aren't defrauding the nation. But after Adscam, and now THIS??? That's going too far.

Posted by: Ade at December 30, 2005 03:03 PM

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Patrick,

Agree 100%, SES is a lagging poll. Like batting averages one good game wont change the average much....but a sustained streak will.

As for Liberal 4th party status. Yes there is a scenario in which that plays out, a scenario that could become more likely. if there were 2 weeks to go and this happened I would think a good chance, 3 weeks is a long time.

Dont count chickens yet. We shall see how the Liberal campaign plays the nasty stuff. If they do it wrong then they are toast.

Isnt there another debate? Thats the one people will watch...and what is the format. Martin is good at the one off.

It might be Harper playing defence at that point, protecting a lead. But make no mistake most voters will be evaluating hm for vision and prime minister jelly.

Posted by: Stephen at December 30, 2005 03:10 PM

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Ade,

I could never understand the Dippers fear of a Conservative government lead by Harper.

A populist Prime Minister over the elietist should be much more comfortable to the Dippers.

I mean really what is it, the lower taxes?, resolution of trade disputes that mean securing union jobs?, Giving back to Canadians their own money to spend on daycare or beer and popcorn or what ever the hell they want?

The NDP started out as a populist movement just as Reform did, Harper is the only leader that carries the populist flag of this generation. It is 1958 all over again. We can hope

Posted by: Derek at December 30, 2005 03:25 PM

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I'm not exactly keen on the way SES collects the "trust", "vision" and "competence" stats: they appear to only allow respondents to give one answer. That is, if a respondent thinks two of the leaders are trustworthy, and less so the others, they have to flip a coin to choose a "most trustworthy" selection.

Still, it's nice to see Harper finally come out on top in the composite scoring.

Posted by: Paul O at December 30, 2005 04:36 PM

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As long as Harper & Co stay to the high road, whatever 'fear & smear' the Fiberals come up with will look old, tired and desperate.

One thing I never understood is how the pollsters pick who they call. It can't be totally random. They must have a list of their favorites or something. I'm listed but I've never been called, nor have my circle of conservative friends... or maybe they're like Ottawa under the Fiberals... they don't want to hear what BC has to say.

Posted by: Mac at December 30, 2005 05:36 PM

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I never actually believe the National Polls,but take them with a grain of salt.In talking with many folks from different walks,there is a strong distrust and disgust with the Liberals. They will get down and dirty. Harper must keep to his game plan. Keep jabbing,the opening will come.

Posted by: Al. Churchill at December 30, 2005 05:42 PM

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NDP to PC shift in Atlantic Canada is not too far fetched. Tories here have been usually "red" Tories anyway. The anti-Grit vote might move in whatever direction it needs to move to get the job done. The Reform/Alliance candidate in one of New Brunswick's ridings in 1997 and 2000 was a very proud and loyal labour union member (CEP). No problem, no sleepless nights.

The SES numbers, as a 3-day rolling average, show a dramatic shift - as Patrick has already pointed out. I can't wait to see the next two chapters.

Posted by: Brent at December 30, 2005 05:44 PM

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I asked SES whatpercentage of people they phoned actually answered their poll. They told me 20% on a good day. So the polls tell us that 80 % of the people have not even given an answer and of those that do 18% are undecided. The media will never tell anyone this fact because they would lose their readers and viewers. I think it was Dief who defined polls properly the only thing that they are good for is they give dogs something to do.

Posted by: Barrie at December 30, 2005 06:00 PM

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Barrie, I don't disagree that the 80% no-response is a problem. However, it's not as much of a problem as you might think.

Polling theory is based on the principle that if you get enough people, randomly chosen, to express their opinion on a subject, it will reflect the larger population. The thing that is counterintuitive about it is you need the same number of respondents whether your larger population is 100 thousand, 100 million, or a billion. China can be polled with the same polling size as Edmonton. And the results will be very similar to other polls taken at the same time, 95% of the time.

This is achieved by having enough people that the extremes of the poll are unable to influence the overall conclusions. They cancel each other out. For example, in every poll sample, there are people who deliberately give the opposite answer to what they really think. There are people who answer strategically rather than according to their own opinion. And so on.

Therefore, as long as you have a sufficiently large sample size, randomly selected, you should have as accurate a poll as you would if everyone answered the phone, and everyone answered truthfully.

The problem isn't the 20% response (although that plays havoc with their costs). The problem is with their methodology in ensuring that in that sample size, they haven't skewed the results by, for example, only including people who are home during the day, or who are predominately of one gender, or who are predominately urban or predominately rural or religious or non-religious. When a pollster says they sampled 1200 people, what they usually (but not always) mean is they sampled, say, 1700 people, then eliminated 500 from consideration because they're overrepresented in the sample. If, for example, they have ten people answer the poll from Nunavut, which would normally be represented by a single person in a 1200 person national poll, they have to determine which of the 10 should be included.

Every pollster resolves this problem in different ways. And rolling polls, being time sensitive, don't have the time to do it well. They make up for it by being able to show trends rather than conclusive results.

Posted by: Patrick at December 30, 2005 07:31 PM

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Captains Quarters had a poll at the start of the election, done for a US company by the Polling company Robbins that survayed 14,000 Canadians. Thjat poll showed that the CPC and the crooks were dead even at 32% That is probably the truest poll todate in this election. One would have to assume that the Liberals are in a lot worse shap today.

Posted by: Barrie at December 30, 2005 07:54 PM

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