a blog about news and politics by steve janke
 

Now it gets vicious

The Conservatives roar up the polls.

See Bourque for the latest:


click to englarge

So what does this mean? My prediction is that the hard-core will take over the Liberal war room. Voices of moderation, undermined by yet another ethics scandal, will fade into the background, or leave the organization altogether.

The hard-core will argue that if the attack had started already, the Liberals wouldn't be in this pickle. It doesn't make sense, but then there will be no one left to argue with them. Given free rein to win this election at any cost, we can expect things not just to get nasty, which everyone expected, but downright vicious.

Besides the obvious targets, the Conservatives and the NDP (and their friends and family), expect the media to feel the pressure. Behind the scenes probably, with editors getting calls warning them of dire consequences for access after the Liberals win in January if they don't play ball right now.

Bloggers, too, might have to worry. Given that blogging is new, it's hard to say what the Liberals will do. There are some obvious targets, like Warren Kinsella, but the rest of us have no access with which to form a credible threat. Perhaps they are planning punitive legislation to gag bloggers to be introduced after the Liberals win?

But I could be wrong.





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Comments

INCOMING!!!!!

Posted by: Stephen at December 30, 2005 11:58 AM



Angry--I fear you are correct re the clamping down on bloggers--after all--can't have free speech in Canada now, can we?
The Liberals have unfettered access to the courts so they can break anyone at any time. With the Security Law they can spin it to look as if they are protecting Canadians from themselves. This same Law(I think it was C36) is in place but we read this morning that a pedophile who skipped bail in Florida is in the Ottawa region--how did he get through the border if the Security Law is working? It is more to clamp down on Canadians than it is 'terrorists' of any stripe.
We must make sure the Liberals cannot fix this election--that is what they will try to do--power at any cost. Democratic deficit indeed!

Posted by: George at December 30, 2005 12:12 PM



Angry,

You forgot one thing: Goodale's resignation. I expect the Grits to lay everything at his feet, tell him to fall on his sword, and then play the boil-has-been-lanced song from here on out.

Meanwhile, let me say, as an American who apparently is better known in the Canadian blogospher than my own, I would be shocked (but not surprised) if a post-election blog clampdown hits you guys. Should that happen, your neighbors (including yours truly) are prepared to stand on guard for thee.

Posted by: D.J. McGuire at December 30, 2005 12:27 PM



Your delusions of grandeur are amusing. Let me know when the Liberal Gestapo show up at your door and then I'll start to take this sort of consipiracy nonsense seriously.

Punative gagging of bloggers. Please.

Posted by: bob at December 30, 2005 12:37 PM



Bob, how about when the Liberal Gestapo (RCMP) showed up at Ottawa Citizen report Juliet O'Neil's home after she had written a few articles about Maher Arar ?

Posted by: Ja at December 30, 2005 01:01 PM



Let me know when the Liberal Gestapo show up at your door and then I'll start to take this sort of consipiracy nonsense seriously.

Bob, judicial intimidation influenced a lot of Canadian bloggers during the Breault testimony back in the Spring. How far a stretch is it for limits to be put on what can be said in a blog, when they've already legislated 3rd party election advertising out of existence?
The threat of legal action is enough to make most law-abiding citizens take pause before they act --and it isn't always the threat of police raids that cause people to back down -- it's fear of income tax audits or other punitive measures that are not necessarily connected with the restricted activity.

Posted by: canadianna at December 30, 2005 01:28 PM



Bob

Start counting down the days, it is coming, I'd say by 2008.

Just look at the latest UN preposal to monitor the Internet. Crazy? Yes, but how hard would it be? Remember you dont' have to go after the bloggers, but the ISP's.

cheers
tom

Posted by: tomax7 at December 30, 2005 01:34 PM



From one of the 33 RCMP investigations

According to media reports, the RCMP actually investigated allegations that Paul Martin supporter Gurbax Singh Malhi was using to granting of ministerial permits as a way to arrange political and financial support for Martin's leadership campaign. The RCMP reportedly looked into the matter but closed it when witnesses refused to cooperate (Globe and Mail, March 10, 2005)


Posted by: gimbol at December 30, 2005 01:38 PM



tomax7 is right-the days of unfettered internet access aare coming to an end.

Conspiracy? No. Reality? Yes.

If the Liberals are re elected, they will take action. After all blogs such this have proven to be the undoing of the Liberals and one thing about them - they sure as heck don't forget their enemies. Ask Sheila Copps. I'm no fan of hers and I do wonder what her motives are in dissing her former party but for her to "come out" so to speak volumes to people who support her.

Posted by: On-Tory-O at December 30, 2005 01:51 PM



government legislation suppressing the blogs is an ABSOLUTE. watch for it. we are impinging into the MSM as some retarded clown act. you think regaining control over our government is easy (12 years since the formation of the Reform). if we don't rein in the MSM to eat our shit (can i say that?) we've won half the battle. follow the money. blog vs msm. freedom vs socialist dogma.

Posted by: Ottawa Core at December 30, 2005 02:16 PM



According to the seat forecaster at:
http://tthfacts.blogspot.com/
the Goodale situation is hurting the Liberals and helping the Tories and NDP.

Posted by: Anonymous at December 30, 2005 02:43 PM



They can have my keyboard when they pry it from my cold, dead fingers.

Posted by: Ed Minchau at December 30, 2005 03:00 PM



Yup, this is going to get real nasty as Herle assumes full and unfettered command.

Posted by: Erik Sorenson at December 30, 2005 03:04 PM



Libel "chill" froze this qwerty keyboard/blog prior to election 2004: >>

Martin compared to Nixon in sponsorship debate

CBC OTTAWA-- Prime Minister Paul Martin again faced an opposition out for his blood over the Quebec sponsorship program Wednesday, with one Conservative MP comparing him to disgraced U.S. president Richard Nixon.

The House of Commons' daily question period was almost entirely devoted to the auditor general's report on how $100 million of a $250-million fund meant to raise the federal government's visibility in Quebec ended up in the hands of ad agencies with close ties to the Liberal party.

Martin has denied knowing about the arrangement during his time as finance minister under former PM Jean Chrétien.

"The prime minister is a creature of the Liberal party in Quebec," Conservative MP Jason Kenney said Wednesday. "How can the prime minister claim that he knew nothing, saw nothing and heard nothing?"

Referring to the Watergate scandal, Kenney added: "It sounds awfully reminiscent of Richard Nixon blaming a small unit within the White House for actions that he knew nothing about."

Martin repeated his defence over and over, in English and French, as did the cabinet ministers who rose to answer questions on his behalf.

"These acts were perpetrated by a very small group of 10 to 12 people within the 14,000 who work for Public Works," Martin said.

"They didn't come to cabinet and say, 'Oh, can we break these rules?' They operated in secrecy.

"But there were rumours, Mr. Speaker, and those rumours eventually came out. There was an internal study. When that study was done, it was turned over to the auditor general for investigation.">>>
http://paulmartintime.ca/mediacoverage/000274.html

Posted by: maz2 at December 30, 2005 03:17 PM



Re seat forecast

For another take go to www.hillandknowlton.ca/company.htm

According to their seat predictor it is conservative minority based on the SES numbers....the next few half point switches change the picture dramatically.

There are still some anomolies in the predictor, it doesnt account for incumbency, popular local candidates etc...like Ottawa Centre. IT just goes by raw numbers. So tracking a specific race like Pontiac or Newmarket Aurora is impossible to do. Although according to this model Belinda loses pretty consistently.

However the results arent bad from my eyeballing and experience, but I only really know Ontario, GTA and SWO really well.

Check it out...right now it shows CPC minority, 2 more points and you have a very strong CPC minority.

I think the polls will get worse for the Libs and I think their vote is soft, i.e. wont come out. I think the CPC has been in monority territory since before Christmas and I believe the Libs will lose 30-50 seats in this election. The CPC win is in the 905, 519 and 613 area codes...strong CPC trend.

If this continues much longer Libs will have to abandon those areas to fight for their core in 416 and on the Island of Montreal.....the fortress is creaking push it much more and it will crack.

I firmly believe that if there is early confirmation of CPC leads in Quebec ridings it will feedback very very badly for the Libs in Ontario. Quebec confirmation will push the middling Ont undecided into the time for a change camp firmly. That opens up a mini 84 option. A firm response back from Ont will send more Quebec ridings, up to 10 into the CPC potnetial camp....if they win 6 and 2-3 in 416 you have a recipie for a CPC majority (shhhhhhh) this is just a scenario and I there is no great liklihood attached. It all depends on getting firm confirmation of good leads in Pontiac, and either Beauce or the Quebec City riding....

If not then you are looking at a Diefenbaker two step....

As long as the CPC keeps doing what they are doing they have a decent minority.

For the moment, that works, getting CPC in power and acting as a government is key...also key to cleaning the place up. Just keep hitting singles and doubles...

Posted by: Stephen at December 30, 2005 03:47 PM



I think censoring Blog's is the first step towards a hell even the Liberals wouldn't want, but I also believe that it's a bit premature to worry about. They have to win first, and I think the winds of change are definately in the air.

Frankly, I believe that the RCMP are in the process of throwing off the chains of their political masters. There's no doubt some of the higher up's inside the RCMP are in the pockets of the Liberals, but I can't see any reason for them to announce this investigation unless there is a revolt going on inside the force.

The RCMP never tell anyone what they are up to until after the fact, and I seriously doubt any NDP bitching is going to make them change thier methodology now.

Nope, I think that the real cops inside the RCMP see a prime chance to break the shackles that bind them, and I expect at least one more announcement, probably around Tuesday of next week, stating that they have seized email and are investigating the PMO.

It will be the RCMP way of delivering a deathblow when it suits the RCMP the most, and they will drive the knife blade in hard when they do.

Praetorian Guard anyone?

Posted by: at December 30, 2005 03:53 PM



Former RCMP Commissioner Norman Inkster moved the top dog position of the RCMP from being "arms length" with the government (where the Commissioner liaised with Attorney General) to being that of a deputy minister. Since that time, it is hard to imagine there's ever been a truly independent RCMP investigation into the activities of government workers, appointees and/or elected officials.

The RCMP, like the Armed Forces, are chronically underfunded because the Liberals disagree idiomatically with the traditional values of men & women who commit themselves to service of their country. Values like honour, respect, integrity and honesty.

Posted by: Mac at December 30, 2005 04:07 PM



When information was blocked by the canadian govt., it was Americian bloggers like Captain's Quarters that came to the rescue. A week later the canadian govt.lifted the gag order on all media including bloggers. GOD BLESS AMERICIA.


Posted by: John at December 30, 2005 06:27 PM



Stephen:

I desparately hope you're right. But a CPC minority is much more fragile than a Liberal one. Its all or nothing.

Posted by: noblerogue at December 30, 2005 08:29 PM



tomax7 said:
Bob - Start counting down the days, it is coming, I'd say by 2008.

Based on today's revelation that Buckets (of the blogs Buckets of Grewel and Bouquets of Gray) acted as a Liberal stalking horse to bring down one previously anonymous blogger, I'd say you're off by a couple of years. I now have little doubt that Angry's warning is timely, and it's one I'm going to heed.

If you're anonymous because you don't want the government to harass you for what you post on blogs, DON'T ever respond to someone asking you for personal details, and don't ever put information that could be used to gather information about you. And don't trust Buckets - the same guy who said he was 95% sure the stuff on Klander was a forgery. He's taking direction from a higher power, the temporary and soon to be turfed occupant of the PM's residence.

Posted by: Patrick at December 31, 2005 02:28 AM