a blog about news and politics by steve janke
 

Tipping points

From a poll on December 23, before Klander's Slander and the Income Trust Scandal bombshell:

For the first time since the federal election began, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper has edged out Prime Minister Paul Martin on issues of leadership that are being tracked daily by a national public-opinion polling firm.

The poll also found Harper leading on the issue of vision for Canada at 25 points and Martin at 20. The prime minister edges out Harper on competence 27 to 23.

The overall leadership index score now has Harper in front with 71 points and Martin with 64 -- the first time the Conservative leader has scored higher than Martin since the SES-CPAC survey began on Dec. 1.

SES's Nik Nanos said Harper started the campaign 23 to 24 points behind Martin on the index.

Remember how the Liberals thought a long campaign would work in their favour. So far, not so good.

Of course, things could change.

And things have changed in the six days since this poll was taken.

Since then, Mike Klander insulted, well, just about everyone via his blog and was forced to resign.

Since then, the Conservatives unveiled a plan to give veterans, including aboriginal veterans, respect and support. This story got a lot of positive media attention.

Since then, the Liberals got a lot of attention as well, but not the positive kind. At the top of every newscast and headlining every newspaper is news that the Mounties are looking into allegations that someone inside of Ralph Goodale's office illegally leaked information about income trust taxation and allowed key traders to profit handsomely. All eyes are on Goodale, waiting for the resignation announcement.

A lot has happened in six days -- the six days when the campaign was supposed to go dormant for Christmas. Has the campaign tipped? Are this week's events just going to add to the momentum measured last week? When the campaign revs up, will the direction become apparent?

And if the Conservatives are starting to pull away, will Canadians ignore the Liberal call for an all out panic? The indications are that it won't work this time:

The survey also shows the Conservative leader closing in on Martin when Canadians are asked who would make the best prime minister. On that front, Martin leads by just three points at 28% to Harper's 25%.

Nanos said so far Harper seems more engaged and relaxed, improving his image, a vulnerability for the Tory leader when the campaign began.

"So, it's not surprising that the Liberals are throwing everything but the kitchen sink at them," said Nanos. "The Liberals still haven't found anything that will stick to Harper. The bogeyman argument, right now, doesn't have traction."

This will be an election for the history books.





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Comments

Not only have the Liberals run a horrendous campaign they have had all of these things go badly for them.

If the CPC cant win this one I dont know what to say.

The only thing stopping a Tory majority is the Bloc.

If the CPC pulls ahead in Ontario you may see some Que seats. Indications of Que seats will feed into Toronto, telling 416'ers that it is ok to vote conservative they wont be ticking quebecers off.

I would urge you to all go back and read Chantal Heberts column that hinted that Martin was coming unglued. I think we should see more evidence of it in the next week or so....I am sure David Herle will be positively suicidal, he'll likely eat his way out of his depression with the MILLIONS he has made off of government contracts, that and spending time with his lovely wife terrie O Leary, who has also made nice money in government.

I wonder if Senator David Smith will be doing the superior dance outside their house?

Posted by: Stephen at December 29, 2005 11:39 AM



Senator Smith won't be doing any dances. He's a good Christian and sincerely believes that "big happy Liberal family" stuff.

Posted by: Joan Tintor at December 29, 2005 01:40 PM



Well Mr Herle wants people to stop talking about Senator Smith's brilliant campaigns and talk about his.

I think they'll be discussing Herel's campaign alright...for years to come.

Posted by: Stephen at December 29, 2005 07:56 PM



Harper needs to nail it down - he should stand up at a big media event, and with a big shit-eating grin say "Hello Everyone - I'm the scary bogeyman with the nefarious hidden agenda! Muhahahaha! Then kiss his wife and pick up his kids for a hug and giggle....

Posted by: Looking in from The Outside at December 29, 2005 10:29 PM