A memo that was released accidently to the press last week by the Liberal Party considers the dimming fortunes for the Liberals in Quebec:

The memo paints a grim picture for the Liberals in the province. The party believes at this point that it can only count on winning 10 ridings. Another 20, the memo suggests, could go to either the Liberals or the Bloc Quebecois.

One riding in particular, Pontiac, is of special interest to me.

Pontiac is represented by Liberal MP David Smith. Smith is currently at the centre of a controversy involving his computer consultancy firm, Abotech. CBC Radio ran a special two-part in-depth report examining the questions swirling around Smith (see here and here), a report that was able to use the results of research that appears in this blog.

Is Pontiac one of the 20 ridings that could go either way? It turns it has been identified by the Liberal Party as a swing riding:

"My main opponent is the Bloc," said Mr. Smith, a former Maniwaki councillor, who also worked as a civil servant. "In the riding of Pontiac, if federalists split the vote, then the next representative will be the Bloc."

He added that francophone Quebecers do not generally recognize themselves in Stephen Harper's party, so there would not likely be enough support for the Tories to win, he suggested.

"They will not vote for Mr. Harper's Conservatives."

But organizers at his party's headquarters in Montreal have flagged his riding along with 20 other constituencies held by either the Bloc or the Liberals that could swing one way or the other in the next election. All three Outaouais ridings, Pontiac, Hull-Aylmer, and Gatineau are in that category. Mr. Smith warned that federalists who choose the Conservatives are isolating themselves from the majority of Quebecers.

People in Pontiac are frustrated, and are not responding to the veiled threat of isolation that is typical of Liberal electioneering ("we might be crooks, but if you don't vote for us, the country will fall apart"):

[Conservative candidate Lawrence Cannon, a former provincial Cabinet minister,] has divided his days in between knocking on doors, and meetings with supporters and potential supporters. Just after lunch time, one of those meetings was with a group of former Liberals who were fed up and looking for change.

"As more and more things have been reported about what's going on with the Liberal party, I don't see that I can vote Liberal in good conscience," said Gail Mathias, referring to the fallout from the sponsorship scandal and corruption uncovered by the Gomery Inquiry, and allegations that federal contracts were steered towards the Liberal incumbent David Smith's family business.

It looks like the question concerning David Smith's business affairs are having an impact. Will the riding go the Bloc? Or will the Conservatives be able to succeed here?

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