From the December 1 City Editorial page of the Ottawa Citizen:

Although the jury is obviously still out on the Conservatives' determination to break through in Central Canada, it is looking more likely every day that the Tories will make their breakthrough in -- gasp! -- West Quebec, and that they'll do it right here in the Outaouais.

The Pontiac is the place -- poor, forgotten Pontiac on the doorstep of the nation's capital. Of Pontiac's 15,000-plus people, at least 15,000 see themselves thus: poor, forgotten, always grovelling on the capital's doorstep for crumbs. It might be this very sense of alienation that will make a little history, giving the New Tories a seat in the country's least New Tory province.

The Liberals have had an easy go in this gigantic riding, stretching and gerrymandered across West Quebec, thanks to a well-oiled machine that seems to have an organization in every town and hamlet, and in every club, council and committee. But the great machine has not delivered much to the alienated Outaouais folks, and merely calling once again for loyalty to the hometown team, as the Pontiac Liberals see themselves, likely won't be enough. This time the battle is likely to be one of personalities, with the machine playing a supporting role.

When the Conservatives named Gatineau city councillor and ex-Quebec Liberal cabinet member Lawrence Cannon to carry the Tory colours here last year, a lot of eyebrows went up. Mr. Cannon is a polished debater, a charming campaigner, fluently bilingual and a man with connections.

Facing him is one-term incumbent David Smith from Maniwaki who came from nowhere before the last election to unseat sitting MP Robert Bertrand, a loyal Chretien supporter. Mr. Smith had been given the nod to make the challenge by the Martin team, and the unknown Mr. Smith signed up members and, suddenly, won the nomination. In no time at all, Mr. Smith was going to Ottawa, a rookie politician if there ever was one. He had never held public office and had a community-participation list shorter than his thumb. But the man had energy and a solid team behind him, which was enough for the Liberal machine to bring the election win to him.

It's a different story this time around. There's the matter of the sponsorship scandal tarring Liberals in Quebec, but Mr. Smith is also bleeding from a self-inflicted wound. He has run into trouble with federal contracts being given to a company once owned by him and now run by his wife and two children in his home.

The Pontiac riding has not always voted Liberal. In the Mulroney years, Barry Moore, a Progressive Conservative from Maniwaki, took back-to-back election wins, but the Conservatives have not been able to build an effective organization across the whole riding. Where they are organized, membership tends towards solidly senior members of society.

So the battle is joined. Can Mr. Smith clear his name quickly and completely? Can Mr. Cannon resurrect the organization that once brought a Conservative majority in the riding?

Hold on, there are two other horses in this race. The long-shot is the NDP, which has completed a renewal of itself in this riding over the last two elections. They have a good candidate, Celine Brault from Chelsea, who is intelligent, articulate and personable. Can she shape her riding association into a fighting machine that will bring out the vote in a riding as diverse as Quyon, Fort Coulonge, Maniwaki, Chelsea, and Buckingham? This is a working persons' territory with forestry and farming the main occupations, but these traditionally NDP-favourable populations don't seem very favourable to the social democrats. It's a Quebec thing.

The second candidate doesn't exist yet, but he or she casts the longest shadow on all these speculations, and this is the Bloc's entry. In the last election the Bloc came in a comfortable second -- with a colourless, inarticulate and uptight ex-public servant as its candidate.

The big question is: will Mr. Smith and Mr. Cannon split the federalist vote and give Pontiac to the Bloc? What a shock it would be for voters in Wakefield, Shawville and Chapeau to wake up with a Bloquiste representing their federalist mindset in Parliament. Would we see a mad dash for the Ontario border? That's happened here before.

With so much at stake, poor, ignored Pontiac is soon to feel very much un-ignored.

I think it's fair to say that Pontiac is going to get its fair share of attention.